Carlos Sainz Jr: What will 2025 bring?

Credit to Wikimedia Comms: Carlos Sainz Jr Ferrari 2021

Carlos Sainz Jr is a driver at the top of his game. As of writing this article, the Australian Grand Prix has been and gone and Carlos Sainz put in a stellar drive to take top honours on the roads of Albert Park. A victory made all the more incredible when only two weeks ago he had his appendix removed and consequently missed the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix. In a span of two weeks he was back in his seat at Ferrari but expectations were extremely low as many feared his return and recovery was too soon. Yet he proved the whole world wrong and took his third Grand Prix victory, once again breaking up the monotony of Max Verstappen. Ferrari is now clearly the second best team with a much quicker and predictable car compared to 2023. Both Leclerc and Sainz are reaping the benefits but Sainz has so far been the driver to beat and after years of hard work within the team, this driver and team combo is starting to look like championship material. 

Since his appointment in 2021, Sainz has been a valued commodity for Ferrari after previous years of stress and tension within the team. He brought a relaxed atmosphere to the team and eradicated the previous internal pressure between Vettel and Leclerc which consequently transitioned to performance on the track. He has an incredible work ethic and really connects with the engineers and team personnel to better understand their way of operating within the garage. He is also insanely quick and consistent in the pace he delivers, much like that of his father Carlos Sainz Sr, two time World Rally Champion. More importantly though, he is an extremely intelligent driver in the way he reads the course of a race and decisively dictates the teams strategy during the race. Even his relationships with teammates have also been solid. He has never had a bad relationship with anyone and despite some tense moments between him and Leclerc, their relationship on and off track is more than harmonious. 

Sainz really feels like the complete package in today's driver market which makes it unbelievable that as of writing this article, Sainz does not have a drive for next year. The announcement of Lewis Hamilton joining Ferrari has put Sainz out of a drive for 2025. A decision criticised as being harsh especially since Carlos has given so much to Ferrari. But the unfortunate reality is that no matter how good he is, he simply does not compare to Hamilton; the greatest driver of this generation. A premature end to his Ferrari career but no time can be wasted for him and that leaves Sainz looking for a seat in 2025. Luckily he seems spoiled for choice but the question is whether any of these free seats make sense for Sainz. He is nearly ten years into his F1 career and is still pushing for that elusive first world championship. He is in his prime but he is also approaching thirty and is aware that time is running out for him to make a real splash. Whichever choice he makes next is crucial for his career and needs to remain a real threat for victory to maintain his hard earned status as one of F1's modern greats. 

Quick Omissions

Speaking realistically, we need to omit certain teams from our predictions. It is not to say a move to any of these teams definitely will not happen but Sainz is at a point where he wants the podiums and the wins regularly and these teams are just too far back in development to really make a move seem logical. Williams, Haas and Visa RB are undergoing huge rebuilds that could potentially take years to place them as steady midfield outfits. Arguments can be made that Sainz could be the final piece for team development but his journey is at a point where wins and podiums now need to become regular and these backmarkers don’t satisfy his craving. Williams and Haas have been incredibly inconsistent as of recent and any attempt at fixing their teams has always fallen short of their proposed ambitions. Visa RB so desperately want to escape the junior team moniker but will always remain as the eternal B team to Red Bull. The drive is there but nothing on and off track is convincing enough for Sainz to justify a move down the grid. Only one backmarker team is exempt from this and they will be mentioned later on. 

McLaren and Alpine, who are both factory works outfits, should tick a lot of boxes for Sainz but even these two are highly unrealistic. McLaren would be a very good move given his past links, but Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are tied up for the long term and there would be no reason to break their contracts for Sainz. Alpine meanwhile are far away from being competitive at the front and have actually slid further backwards than forwards. Both their drivers, Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly, seem to be on their way out leaving an opening for Sainz, but internal instability is derailing any meaningful development occurring. If a move to any of these teams happen, it would be a huge shock. But as it stands right now, the likelihood is these are far off his radar for not aligning with his current interests. But without further adieu, I believe these next four teams to be likely landing spots for Sainz and we will discuss the pros and cons that come with all of these prospective changes.

Mercedes

Credit to Wikimedia Comms: Mercedes AMG Formula 1 Logo

The departure of Lewis Hamilton to Ferrari has now left a free seat at Mercedes, once one of the most coveted seats in Formula 1. The all conquering German team have won eight constructors championships in a row and dominated the first part of the turbo hybrid era of F1. In that time they have accumulated seven world drivers championships, 111 victories and 232 podiums. Hamilton was the dominant force in Mercedes but every driver that has been with Mercedes in the turbo hybrid have all seen victory lane during their career. They also have one of the best engines available in the paddock right now by harnessing both great levels of power and rock solid reliability. Not only within Mercedes but it is evident with their customer teams in McLaren, Aston Martin and Williams. The engineering force within this team is mighty and then you have Toto Wolff at the head of this operation, one of F1’s greatest team principles of the modern era. The way he commands Mercedes with compassion and determination is to be highly commended. He maintains high standards within the squad by driving forward the desire for victory and nothing else. His standard is unbelievably high and anything less than that is failure. To join a team with so much prestige and motivation would be a great move for Sainz as he is entering his prime years of Formula 1 and Mercedes having Sainz on their team would be a great replacement for Lewis Hamilton. 

But then Mercedes is vastly different from what they were before these new regulations. Mercedes are now in year three of the current ground effect cars and yet again in 2024, they can not seem to nail consistent performance. Their goal is to fight Red Bull and be frontrunners yet again but they are falling further back every year. They managed a second place in the constructors championship in 2023 but progress has gone away from them in 2024. Sainz could be the answer for a potential resurgence. After all, he has been part of rebuilding McLaren and Ferrari from disastrous years. But Sainz would be walking into the fire with a spiralling Mercedes, one that is losing their guiding light of a driver in Lewis Hamilton and one that is severely weakened engineering wise after key staff members have departed to Red Bull and Ferrari. There would also be the argument that Sainz is shifted back into a number two role which he wants to desperately escape from. You have George Russell, a driver touted as a future world champion but still has a long way to go before becoming elite. He is currently around the same level as Sainz but he has the upper hand with team loyalty. After playing number 2 at Ferrari, is there the possibility of two alpha drivers fighting it out for superiority or a clear hierarchy needing to be established? And given that Mercedes were unable to manage that previously with Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg, could Sainz be relegated to number two status again? Mercedes juniors in Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Paul Aaron and Frederik Vesti are also waiting in the wings as Mercedes’ new generational talents whilst Toto has also gone on record desiring the likes of Fernando Alonso and Max Verstappen over Sainz. The question on Sainz’s shoulders is whether Mercedes would actually value him as a true match for George or if they only want him as a number two placeholder just for a better driver to come fill his place.  

Red Bull Racing

Credit to Goodfon.com: Red Bull Racing Logo

After discussing the previous juggernauts, we now move onto the current juggernauts in Red Bull Racing. Sergio Perez suffered a horrible 2023 and has thrown his position in the team in jeopardy. Seemingly Red Bull are spoilt for choice with Sergio Perez, Daniel Ricciardo and Yuki Tsunoda engaging in a three way dogfight for top honours in the senior team. But truthfully, none of these drivers are currently looking like hot prospects for that second Red Bull seat. Perez is mentally beaten by Verstappen, Ricciardo is completely out of rhythm with his driving and Tsunoda has stagnated despite three years of development in the sport. Is the answer to Red Bull’s troubles within their academy? Arguably no and that is where Sainz steps in as a really strong candidate for that seat. He has the experience, he has loads of engineering knowledge and he is also incredibly adaptable to driving so many different F1 cars throughout his career. That last point is the most important because the Red Bull is a very twitchy and delicate car and requires very specific inputs to perform optimally, something which every other Red Bull driver has struggled to comprehend. He would be stepping into a championship winning car that could guarantee podiums and possibly wins every race he went to. It would be a logical step up from Ferrari and with his previous links as a Red Bull junior driver, he would sync really well with the team personnel he once previously knew.

But would that mean anything with a team that is currently imploding from the inside. The allegations surrounding Christian Horner and the supposed ensuing fallout between him, Helmut Marko and Jos Verstappen is putting management at Red Bull in turmoil. The team is under huge pressure from the press, the FIA and FOM for clarity and answers but details are being kept well away from the public eye about Christian Horner’s behaviour. But now the narrative is suggesting that all of Red Bull’s key members could be on their way out including the key weapon in Red Bull’s arsenal, aerodynamicist Adrian Newey. It sounds bizarre to suggest Sainz turning down Red Bull on this basis but coming into a team that could potentially topple at any minute is a gamble that is arguably not worth taking, especially when their image is currently less than favourable with the public. Not only this but dreams of victory are not guaranteed when paired with Max Verstappen who is in the prime of his life. He is operating at a dangerously high level and since 2019 has slaughtered every single one of his teammates in Pierre Gasly, Alex Albon and now Sergio Perez. Not to say that Sainz could not challenge Max. I do believe his talent is greater than what viewers give him credit for. But Verstappen is in a different league altogether and the pit wall will always favour Verstappen because of that. Quick everywhere and ultra consistent, he is relentless and never shows any mistakes, single-handedly cursing the second Red Bull seat. If Sainz wants victory, Red Bull would not give it to him and he would only be there to complete the podium. It would be incredibly risky to take on that position especially seeing how Sergio Perez, a driver once lauded as a real challenger, has been comprehensively crushed. There would be immense pressure both inside and outside of the car and that is something Sainz would need to judge whether he can handle it or not. 

Aston Martin

Credit to Wikimedia Comms: Aston Martin Formula 1 Team Logo

Aston Martin is ascending rapidly in Formula 1. The former Force India/Racing Point team is now a fully funded factory effort from one of Britain’s most iconic car brands under the ownership of Canadian billionaire Lawrence Stroll. He is deeply passionate about racing and has strategically spent every penny he has to turn Aston Martin into a world championship winning team. The old Silverstone factory has now become a multimillion pound flagship Aston Martin F1 facility and the team now operates under new team principal Mike Krack, a highly accomplished engineer formerly for BMW and Porsche who oversaw their DTM and Prototype entries respectively. They even managed to poach Fernando Alonso from Alpine, a two time world champion and one of the greatest drivers operating today. We have seen time and time again teams pouring an infinite pool of money into their team only to gain no progress but Lawrence Stroll’s money has not gone to waste. Casting back through Force India’s and Racing Point’s history, 2023 was the team's most successful year. They were comfortably second fastest heading into the summer break and were regular challengers for the podium just behind Red Bull. Alonso demonstrated the ability that Aston Martin possessed dominating the rest of the field and nearly taking a sensational pole position in Monaco, proving that the changes that Aston Martin have taken are legitimate.

Joining this ascending team would be great for Sainz’s career, but there are still teething issues to be figured out. 2023 was a great year for the team no doubt but performance really dropped off in the latter stages of the season. The car reacted poorly to upgrades during the mid season and actually slowed down Aston Martin in a bizarre twist. They eventually regressed with upgrades which saw performance pick up again, the notable high being Alonso’s performance in Brazil, but the team were still perplexed as to why the upgrades did not work. This year's car has started off slower than last year but Aston Martin says that it will be a trade off for a car that is more susceptible to upgrades. They have not fallen off a cliff though. They are still nipping at the heels of the front and are nearly edging out Mercedes, but we don’t have the full picture of whether Aston Martin will properly ascend later on in the season for Sainz to discuss a move there. Then there is the question of Lance Stroll. The perennial pay driver who always attracts controversy for existing. The son of team owner Lawrence Stroll is under a rolling contract for Aston Martin Racing and is looking highly unlikely to be broken. Paddock chatter has suggested sponsors are wanting Stroll out if he does not improve his form but when you are discussing this with his dad who runs the whole operation, it looks likely he will remain in that second seat. Lance Stroll conducted an interview on the ‘Beyond the Grid’ podcast where his intentions were for him and his dad to achieve a world championship together which is truly an inspirational goal. But a point is now being reached where he is hindering the development of Aston Martin through a lack of points in the overall constructors championship. The opportunity is there for Sainz to pair with his long term friend and idol Fernando Alonso which would be massive for Aston Martin. But the reality is that Sainz would be paired with Stroll, provided Alonso departs elsewhere. The team would be resting on Sainz’s shoulders in this case which would give him number one status. But how far can he really push Aston Martin when you have a driver actively holding the team back? The answer should be to pair him with Alonso but that is a decision only Lawrence Stroll can make.   

Sauber (Audi)

Credit to Wikimedia Comms: Audi Logo

I mentioned back at the start of this article one backmarker team being a real possibility for Sainz and that team is Stake F1. Not for what they currently are but for what they will be in 2026. As of that year, Stake F1 will relinquish team ownership and become the Audi Formula 1 team from 2026 onwards. The rumour mill was recently circling with the possibility of Audi pulling out of this deal after the departure of key project members but they have now doubled down on their deal and are more committed than ever. As of writing this, Audi have now purchased a 100% stake in running Stake F1 (coincidental naming) gaining them full ownership of the Swiss based team from 2026. The proposed split between Sauber and Audi will now become a fully fledged Audi F1 team proving the media wrong about their hesitancy and showing a desire to commit to F1. The CEO of the team is also Andreas Seidel, former team principal of McLaren F1 where Sainz was previously based. Seidel oversaw McLaren from 2019 when Sainz also joined the team and the two of them shared a great relationship on and off track. Sainz knows his capabilities as a team principal after reviving McLaren from their darkest hour and now being in the shoes of Audi CEO, it is safe to say Seidel will do a good job. The last time he worked as the CEO of a German motorsport manufacturer, it was the Porsche LMP1 project. And in the four years of running that operation, they accumulated three straight World Endurance Championships and three straight victories at the 24 Hours of Le Mans. He and Audi have been working actively together since 2023 developing, building and testing every single element of their team to assure a competitive start in 2026, a really good sign for Sainz looking at a prospective move. There is also the point to be made about drivers which would also be advantageous for Sainz. Audi have stated they are aiming for a German driver to occupy one of the seats which could go to Nico Hulkenberg or possibly Sebastien Vettel. But the market for German drivers across all racing has never been stronger so getting a competitive driver would be great to push Audi. And as a bonus, no matter who is alongside, it would still be guaranteed that Sainz is granted number one status within Audi, especially when bringing up the leverage his dad would have as an Audi factory driver himself. 

The thing is this would still be a risky move for Sainz. You can have all the right ingredients in place but competitiveness is never guaranteed. We have seen this time and time again where big manufacturers enter F1 with huge ambitions only for the reality of the sport to squander any effort made. You need patience and determination to succeed and too often do we see teams try to achieve the impossible too quickly. Everything is looking good from Audi and Sainz would be more than capable to lead the team. But serious caution is needed to assess the heights this project can reach. It is also key to mention that the Audi brand and works engine will only come into effect in 2026 and the team will remain as Stake F1 in 2025 for one more year. To an extent, embedding himself into the forthcoming Audi F1 team would be a good idea to get a sense of his surroundings and forming solid relationships with new mechanics. But Stake F1 is quite comfortably the slowest team by a long margin and trading a front running car for a back market would be dismal for Sainz. The build quality of Stake’s cars is surprisingly shocking and the quality of their pit stops have been awful this season. Zhou Guanyu in Australia broke his front wing not by collision with a wall or another driver but by simply going over a kerb showing no structural integrity in the car. And Valtteri Bottas fell victim to shoddy pit stops that completely ruined any chance of earning points, clocking in too close to a minute. These problems even existed a year ago so the signs of speed that were promised have not shown at all. The Audi rebirth could not come soon enough but would Sainz still be willing to take up an awful 2025 for Audi in 2026 that might not be guaranteed as competitive? He could sit out for a year to join Audi in 2026 but that would be detrimental missing a year in F1 so serious consideration is needed if Sainz wants to take a leap of faith to Audi.

Which is most likely?

It is way too difficult to judge where Sainz will be heading off to currently. The season is still early doors and we really need to see where everyone is by the summer break in terms of their development. Japan is rapidly approaching but there are still more than twenty races to go. Sainz has said he wants to have a contract in place for next year as soon as possible meaning he will be judging these teams closely as the season goes on. But if we are to judge now based on three races, then these are my conclusions. 

My view on Mercedes is that they are incredibly unstable on the track and the signs of progression are not showing. Their car is now at best fourth fastest, slipping behind McLaren and Ferrari and seemingly suffering reliability issues as well which is unheard of for a team this successful. Merc's trajectory is going down and is now well behind the development race. It could become a dark age for the team and for Sainz to walk into a team digging their own grave would be unwise following Ferrari. They also seem to desire more drivers over Sainz including Alonso, Verstappen and future talent Antonelli so from a standpoint of value, I also believe Sainz would not choose a temporary tenure at a struggling Mercedes who do not view him as their answer.   

Audi seems sure fire to hit the ground running in 2026. They have been building and developing their factory, chassis and engine all in house since 2023 and given Audi’s record across all of motorsport, there should not be any reason why they would not succeed. But I just cannot see a world where Sainz would accept a year at Stake F1 when they are at their worst. He wants to keep up the momentum he has right now and I’m unsure if trading the front for the back is worth a risk. He could join in 2026 but that could mean a year on the side lines which he would definitely be opposed to. And even then, there is still the uncertainty of whether Audi will actually perform. A move may be more likely in the future when their performance is more evident but I still believe that an immediate move here would be unlikely. 

Logically speaking, Aston Martin seems to be a great spot based on the perspective of stability. He would be accepting a minor decrease in performance but the front is still within touching distance and he would have instant number one status ahead of Stroll. It would not require the development time that a Williams or a Haas car would need but big steps are still needed. He has successfully elevated previous teams before and Aston Martin has a great platform for Sainz to build off of unlike Mercedes, especially with the signing of Honda engines for 2026 onwards. But then this is also decided on the fate of Fernando Alonso and whether he will move teams, remain in Aston Martin or retire completely from F1. A lot of dominoes need to fall into place regarding the fate of Alonso and Stroll but either way, I still believe this would be a great move forwards. But would it be the best move out of all?

To me at least, I believe that Sainz will be with Red Bull come 2025, but this comes with a huge asterisk. Their off track drama needs to clear up soon if Sainz should justify a move to the top team. If any key members leave the team then their time at the top could come to an end. But provided the team stays unified to the end of the season, Sainz in my eyes will be a Red Bull driver for 2025. He has the speed and the adaptability needed to tame the Red Bull car and has the mental fortitude to run at the front with the best of them. He would be trading victories for the second spot on the podium but his status would be elevated to elite if he can keep up with Max. He also has those previous Red Bull links to really gel with the team and has a good relationship with Max Verstappen on and off track. He is perfect for that team and Red Bull would be foolish to not consider him alongside Verstappen. He would have to swallow the pill of being an eternal number two which is something I have argued as a reason going against a move to Mercedes. But with a car this good, I think he would be happy to take such a gamble. 

But this is just one opinion out of possibly millions following this story. No one outside of Sainz’s bubble will know what his next move is and we can only speculate and pretend that we know better. But what is absolutely assured is that Sainz is not a fool when negotiating contracts. Sainz’s track record of team moves have always been successful. Even with Renault, which was definitely the weakest, he and the car were still competitive and he collected a great haul of points to place Renault in fourth place in 2018, the highest that team has ever reached since their rebrand in 2016. His successive moves to McLaren and then Ferrari were all seen as disastrous but he turned around this narrative and made these moves define his career. He’s slowly ascended upwards collecting his first podiums, poles and wins along the way whilst elevating these teams through their toughest periods. McLaren and Ferrari would not be the same teams now without Carlos Sainz driving for them. He assesses the state of teams with such a fine sense of detail and subsequently evaluates what is best for his personal situation as a driver and whether he can turn them around for his and their benefit. He is superbly analytical and I am confident in saying wherever he goes next, he will make it work.

Image Sources

• Carlos Sainz Jr: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Formel12021-SchlossGabelhofen%2815%29.jpg

• Mercedes Benz: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Mercedes-Benz_AMG_Petronas_Formula_One_Team_Logo_Wheelsology.JPG

• Red Bull Racing: https://www.goodfon.com/sports/wallpaper-wallpaper-sport-logo-formula-1-red-bull-racing.html

• Aston Martin F1: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Aston_Martin_Aramco-Mercedes_logo.png

• Audi: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Logo_audi.jpg